Kinetic Alpha

Nothing here is a view on whether these contracts should list, on the legal status of any sports event contract, or on the conduct of any exchange, league, data administrator or venue named. Index values in this piece are Kinetic Alpha’s reconstruction of the published FSPI NHL Team Index methodology applied to the NHL’s official play-by-play feed for 2018–19 through 2023–24, covering 15,410 team-games. They are not FutureSports’ official closes and will differ from them in small ways. Margin figures are illustrative sizing drawn from the reconstructed distributions, not CME parameters; the exchange has not published scan ranges for these contracts and any figures it does publish should be taken over these. Contract specifications are described as announced and are subject to change before listing.

The scoring-discretion discussion concerns publicly documented differences in how judgment-based statistics are recorded across arenas. It alleges no manipulation, no misconduct and no bad faith by any scorer, club or league employee, and the argument would hold with equal force if every crew in the league were acting in complete good faith — that is precisely the point about putting a discretionary input into a settlement term. Research and education, not investment advice.