Kinetic Alpha

Research · Event contracts · Market design

Hedging corporate event risk inside a hierarchy

Benchmark contracts carry the liquid systematic exposure; granular nodes sell the idiosyncratic basis back. This piece builds that architecture out across six families of corporate event risk — pre-release content compromise and mass-tort litigation in depth, then M&A deal-break, cyber, recall, and approval risk — against the CFTC event-contract regime, ILW and cat-bond precedent, and market-scoring-rule design.

The document above is self-contained and carries its own theme toggle, chart data tables, and source list. Modelled figures — tier efficiency, the tranche/correlation curve, implied correlation, the carry wedge, scoring-rule sizing, and merger-arb sensitivity — are computed from stated assumptions and are illustrative of structure, not forecasts. Market-design commentary, not legal advice; the unlawful-activity prong of the CEA event-contract rule is called out in the page as an open question. Reproduce every computed figure with scripts/corporate-event-hierarchy/model.py.