Kinetic Alpha

Product facts are stated as of August 10, 2026. Derman (2002), The perception of time, risk and return during periods of speculation (Quantitative Finance 2(4), 282–296; arXiv cond-mat/0201345), is used as stated in Section 2; the extensions in Section 4 — settlement time as a third clock, venue temperature as distinct from asset temperature, and the grid as a measuring instrument for the activity clock — are ours rather than the paper’s, and are labelled as such in the text. The Two Clocks model is stylized and illustrative: the intraday activity profiles are shaped by known session structure rather than fitted to tick data, and the event variance budgets are user-set placeholders. The metals settlement mechanic described here (the close of a one-minute Pyth candle) is sourced from third-party validation against 193 settled windows, not from a Kalshi rulebook document, and is flagged as well-evidenced but unofficial; the silver ticker is as reported by third-party trackers. Kalshi does not publish per-series launch dates or 15-minute volume figures, and the $16k–$71k daily range refers to pre-existing daily and weekly commodity markets. No manipulation is asserted to have occurred at any venue — the analysis is of settlement-design economics, not of conduct. Research and education, not investment advice.