This is market-structure research, not investment advice, and it is not a recommendation to trade event contracts, open an account at any venue, or allocate capital to speculation of any kind. Event contracts carry an expected value net of fees of approximately zero at best, and the documented realized outcome for retail takers is materially worse than that; the piece is explicit that this is not an investment and that no fiduciary should present it as one. Nothing here should be read as encouragement to speculate. If gambling is causing harm to you or someone you know, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is available 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.

Order-book data was snapshotted from the Kalshi and Polymarket public APIs on August 17, 2026 and moves continuously; contracts referenced may since have resolved or been delisted. Survey figures are as published by Betterment (2026 Retail Investor Survey, n=1,000) and Northwestern Mutual (2026 Planning & Progress Study, Harris Poll, n=4,357) and carry those studies’ own methodological limits. Fee schedules are as published by each venue and change. The calibration curve is stylized to illustrate a documented pattern rather than fitted to a dataset, and the strategy archetypes and guardrails are design proposals, not backtested results. The registration analysis is our reading of public rules and is not legal advice; anyone contemplating operating such a sleeve should take counsel.