Kinetic Alpha

Instrument facts and market levels are stated as of August 11–17, 2026. The BIS model’s quantities are, in its own author’s words, illustrative rather than forecasts: it has five symmetric players, a single productivity shock, and excludes bank, private-credit and SPV financing channels entirely, so figures such as the 1.4× over-investment result, the ~50% bust probability and the $378 billion conditional loss are model outputs under stated parameters and are reproduced here as such, not adopted as predictions. The mapping from the paper’s loss channels to tradable instruments, the argument that contest dynamics make the racers structurally unhedgeable, the separation of the two risks travelling under “dark GPU,” and the hedge programs sketched holder by holder are Kinetic Alpha analysis rather than the paper’s claims. Hedge sizing is illustrative and assumes instruments perform as documented; several referenced contracts are pending regulatory review and may not list. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell protection on any name, a view on any issuer’s creditworthiness, or a solicitation to trade any instrument. Research and education, not investment advice.