Every rated or publicly priced compute financing we could find, in one ledger. The two charts show the one thing the ledger is unambiguous about: the price follows the credit standing behind the contract, not the chip. Hover a point for the deal; switch to the table for the full record and a source for each row.
Basis points over the benchmark rate (SOFR), by close date. One dot per facility.
Percent, by pricing date. One dot per note.
| Closed | Issuer · instrument | Size | Rating | Pricing | Credit behind the contract | Tenor and contract | Status |
|---|
Sources are linked from each row. “Primary source” means the figure was checked against the issuer’s release or filing; “press-reported” means it rests on a tracker or news report and is carried as reported. Spreads shown as a single dot are the midpoint of a disclosed range. Landlord coupons are for the largest fixed-rate tranche where several exist. Ledger compiled September 23, 2026 from the CCIR Compute Credit Tracker and the sources in the piece.
A pool of chip-backed loans, sliced by seniority, valued two ways. The paper’s way: recovery on seized chips falls in the same conditions that make borrowers default, because both depend on the compute market. The shortcut’s way: one average recovery rate. Move the inputs and watch where the difference lands.
Loss on the pool, percent of face, by percentile of the compute-market state on a normal-quantile scale, so the tail is spread out. Hairlines mark where each slice begins to lose.
Percent of each slice’s face. The label is how far the average-recovery valuation understates the state-linked one.
| Slice | Attach | Detach | Expected loss, state-linked recovery | Expected loss, average recovery | Understatement |
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| Market-state percentile | Conditional default rate | Recovery, state-linked | Pool loss, state-linked | Pool loss, average recovery |
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Mechanism: borrower i defaults over the horizon when √ρ·M + √(1−ρ)·εi falls below Φ−1(p), with M the shared compute-market factor. The compute-price state is exp(σ√T·M − ½σ²T). Recovery on a defaulted loan is the depreciated chip value e−δT times that state, divided by the starting loan-to-value, floored at the salvage rate and capped at one. The average-recovery valuation uses the default-weighted mean of that recovery, so the two valuations agree on the pool and disagree only on how loss is allocated across slices. Expected shortfall is the mean loss in the worst one percent of market states. Lee and Nagaraj report understatement of +199.9% for the senior slice under a simple recovery curve and +94.4% under a curve calibrated to chip prices (simulation 8); the paper’s settings and this page’s are not identical.
Two ways to see the same rule: repay faster than the chip depreciates. Left, the paper’s result that credit losses and depreciation multiply, so collateral per dollar of face grows with maturity as eδT. Right, a single loan: the chip’s value curve against the loan balance for different repayment schedules, and the year the loan goes under water.
Multiple of face value, by maturity. Gray hairlines are the paper’s reference decay rates; the marked points are its published three-year figures.
Fraction of the chip’s purchase price. The loan is under water where the balance line rises above the value line.
| Maturity, years | Collateral at chosen decay | At decay 0.2 | At decay 0.4 | At decay 0.6 |
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| Year | Chip value | Loan balance, chosen schedule | Loan-to-value | Balance, 3-year schedule | Balance, 2-year schedule |
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Collateral multiple: k·eδT, where k is the collateral needed against credit loss alone at zero maturity. With k = 1.3 this reproduces the paper’s three-year figures of 2.4, 4.3 and 7.9 at decay rates 0.2, 0.4 and 0.6. The paper’s estimate from resale prices is a decay rate of 0.46 to 0.53 a year, roughly 40 percent of value lost each year; American Compute’s June 2026 residual bands put an H100 at 45–74 percent of list price in 2026, 34–59 in 2027 and 24–51 in 2028. Right chart: chip value e−δt; loan balance starts at the loan-to-value and repays straight-line over the chosen years. Neither chart includes interest, rental income, or a customer contract: this is the collateral view alone, which is the view that matters once the contract has ended.
Companion to The Customer Is the Collateral, Kinetic Alpha, September 23, 2026. Research and education. Not investment advice, and not an offer of any product or service requiring registration.